Shadow President Felicia Winters has fallen into a deep turmoil with fourteen systems at risk. Their profitability ranges from -10 to +37 Command Capital (CC), worth a combined +138 CC at maximum overheads. This presents a significant threat to Winters, as these are the bulk of her good systems. Losing all fourteen would mean that she is left with only three long-term profitable systems: Kali, CD-35 6972 and Binjamingi.


The main contributing factor of Winters’ turmoil is her default deficit. After Operation Valentine earlier this year, Winters’ default balance surged to a surplus due to the overhead discounts inherent in a large loss of control systems. Over the course of the year, her default balance was whittled down to a significant deficit of 574 CC. This was caused by Senator Torval’s weaponised expansions as well as Winters’ own loss-making expansions, carried out by fifth column forces.


By the end of the previous cycle, all of Winters’ profitable systems were undermined by hostile forces. The Federal Liberal Command (FLC) fortified these and attempted to fill the turmoil list with unwanted systems by undermining all but seven lossmakers. This is a common strategy and would have prevented much of the damage, but similar to during her controversial turmoils earlier this year saboteurs fortified all but two of the lossmakers, countering all of the FLC’s self-undermining. As a result, 40 of Winters’ 49 control systems were cancelled causing them to neither add to nor subtract from her default deficit.


This cycle, Winters’ default deficit of 574 CC is further deepened by 1,425 CC to 1,999 CC, as the systems in turmoil do not provide any income. Even if all systems are fortified and not cancelled by undermining, the ending balance can only be improved by 1,192 CC to a deficit of -807. At best, the FLC can sacrifice some currently-at-risk systems to end the turmoil or influence which systems will be in turmoil next cycle, but not everything can be saved as a positive ending balance is impossible.


Winters’ expansion to Baal also failed due to the turmoil, though it was already unlikely to complete due to triggers heavily favouring opposition Though Baal and Winters’ many recent expansion attempts were clearly not intended to complete, the expansion to Luchu which was prepared last cycle may have been more serious. It would only make a loss of 1 CC per cycle at maximum overheads and contest Emperor Lavigny-Duval for 34 CC. At only 78.91 ly from Winters’ headquarters, the opposition has to work 1.26 times harder to stop the expansion, too. It is possible that the attack on Winters was a response to this.


SiriusGov CEO Li Yong-Rui has started restructuring his corporate sector, with six lossmaking systems in turmoil. Their profitability ranges from -9 to -20 and are currently costing SiriusGov a combined 86 CC per cycle. If all six systems are lost, another 444 CC can be gained from overhead discounts, potentially improving the default balance from a 349 CC deficit to a 181 CC surplus.


To achieve this, fourteen loss-making systems were undermined. Redeeming the vouchers late in the cycle, often referred to as ‘sniping’, lowered the chance that the undermining would be noticed during the cycle. Despite this, one of the targeted systems, Ix, was fortified and therefore got cancelled when the snipe was redeemed. In addition, 20 other systems were fortified despite Li Yong-Rui’s policy against it, lowering the potential gains during the restructuring.


The restructuring is a response to previous expansions which have been harmful to SiriusGov as a whole. Board Director Matzov elaborates:

“Unfortunately there are some units within the greater Sirius conglomerate who would play fast and loose with the business in pursuit of short-term gains. That’s not how we see it here at SiriusGov. Good business economics mitigates risk and plays a long game. We will always look to do what is right to keep our core business profitable and efficient. That includes rationalising to prevent these rogue elements from overexposing our portfolio.”


The lossmaking expansion to Dafnharian, which would have cost SiriusGov 73 CC at maximum overheads, was also prevented by the turmoil.


EG Union Dictator Yuri Grom remains in turmoil and has lost Adad, which was worth 33 CC at maximum overheads. It also contested Pirate King Delaine for 16 CC and President Hudson for 7 CC. This cycle, he risks losing control of Katurru, Nauo and Kinago, which are worth 50, 35 and 19 CC respectively. Katurru also contests Senator Patreus for 5 CC.


The turmoil was caused by seventeen systems being undermined, five of which were cancelled due to fortification. Only four other systems were fortified. The turmoil also ensured that the unintended expansions to Xi Ophiuchi and BD+08 1303 failed. Together, they would have cost Grom 96 CC at maximum overheads, while contesting 72 CC with Hudson, 11 CC with Mahon, 8 CC with Li Yong-Rui and 6 CC with Winters.


President Zachary Hudson successfully opposed Senator Torval’s attempt to prepare LHS 184, by preparing his own expansion to the nearby Alpha Caeli instead with 47,000 merits, beating Torval by 29,000 merits. While this saves Hudson the effort of opposing LHS 184 which could have contested him for 55 CC and required him to put in 3.62 times more merits than Torval — it also means he has a loss-making expansion to worry about. Alpha Caeli would cost Hudson 43 CC, but has more even triggers allowing easier opposition. It also contests Senator Patreus for 6 CC.

Emperor Arissa Lavigny-Duval prepared L 206-187 for expansion, which weaponises into Hudson for 101 CC and Grom for 6 CC. It would cost her 89 CC at maximum overheads and require her to work 1.72 times harder than the opposition. It is unclear whether she intends to complete the expansion, as her forces previously put little effort into it during cycle 228.


Sagittarius Eye Breaking News team

About Us

Sagittarius Eye is the monthly online magazine and podcast for Elite Dangerous. We are your source for commentary, analysis, news and entertainment in the Milky Way – by commanders, for commanders.

© 3307 Sagittarius Eye